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Concón National vs Trasandino Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:30

Concón National

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trasandino

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.4% 1.91 -11.4%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 32.0% 32.3% 3.10 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concón National1.4

Trasandino1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCÓN NATIONAL · PPG 1.33

TRASANDINO · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concón National (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Trasandino (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concón National face Trasandino in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concón National a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Trasandino 27%, so Concón National are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Concón National and 1.0 for Trasandino (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concón National are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.29 for Trasandino. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Concón National vs Trasandino Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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