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Monagas II vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:30

Monagas II

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bolívar

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.6%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.5%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.0%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.3%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 26.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas II1.4

Bolívar1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS II · PPG 2.29

BOLÍVAR · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas II (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bolívar (A) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas II face Bolívar in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas II a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Bolívar 26%, so Monagas II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Monagas II and 1.1 for Bolívar (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas II are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Bolívar.

Monagas II vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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