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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Puerto Cabello II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Atletico el Vigia FC

PPG 0.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Puerto Cabello II

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.9%0-27.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.8%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 38.2% 2.62 -17.5%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 43.5% 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 33.7% 31.3% 3.20 +7.8%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 34.3% 40.0% 2.50 -14.2%

Away O1.5 48.2% 43.7% 2.29 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico el Vigia FC1.2

Puerto Cabello II1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC · PPG 0.89

PUERTO CABELLO II · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico el Vigia FC (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Puerto Cabello II (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico el Vigia FC face Puerto Cabello II in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico el Vigia FC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Puerto Cabello II 44%, so Puerto Cabello II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico el Vigia FC and 1.7 for Puerto Cabello II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico el Vigia FC are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Puerto Cabello II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Atletico el Vigia FC vs Puerto Cabello II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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