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Atletico Avila FC vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Atletico Avila FC

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Aragua FC

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.5%0-120.0%0-26.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-110.4%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.3%2-12.7%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.7%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 34.7% 2.88 -8.3%

Draw 39.2% 33.3% 3.00 +17.6%

Away win 30.8% 43.5% 2.30 -29.2%

Over 2.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

Over 3.5 12.1% 19.6% 5.10 -23.0%

BTTS 33.3% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.6% 3.50 +12.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 34.2% 2.92 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.3%

D 39% / xG 0.5-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 31.5%

#2 0–1 20.0%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Avila FC0.5

Aragua FC0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO AVILA FC · PPG 0.88

ARAGUA FC · PPG 1.12

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 1.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Avila FC (H) 29.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.3%

Draw 39.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.6%

Aragua FC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Avila FC face Aragua FC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Avila FC a 30% chance, the draw 39% and Aragua FC 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Atletico Avila FC and 0.6 for Aragua FC (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Avila FC are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.12 for Aragua FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Atletico Avila FC vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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