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Real Frontera vs Deportivo Lara Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:30

Real Frontera

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Lara

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.8%0-210.2%0-36.3%0-4+4.6%1 1-05.6%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.8%2-15.2%2-24.8%2-33.0%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.5%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Frontera1.0

Deportivo Lara1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL FRONTERA · PPG 0.80

DEPORTIVO LARA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Frontera (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Lara (A) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Frontera face Deportivo Lara in Venezuela - Segunda División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Frontera a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Deportivo Lara 55%, so Deportivo Lara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Frontera and 1.9 for Deportivo Lara (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Frontera are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.67 for Deportivo Lara.

Real Frontera vs Deportivo Lara Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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