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Club Atletico Barinas vs Zamora FC B Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Club Atletico Barinas

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zamora FC B

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+30.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.8%0-22.0%0-31.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-02.1%1-14.7%1-25.2%1-33.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.7%2-16.1%2-26.7%2-35.0%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.4%3-15.3%3-25.8%3-34.3%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-16.3%4+-27.0%4+-35.2%4+-4+4.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 44.4% 2.25 +15.0%

Draw 20.9% 30.3% 3.30 -18.6%

Away win 28.0% 37.0% 2.70 -14.6%

Over 2.5 74.4% 57.1% 1.75 +30.2%

Over 3.5 54.1% 36.5% 2.74 +48.2%

BTTS 69.6% 63.3% 1.58 +10.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 48.8% 2.05 +29.1%

Away O1.5 64.0% 42.6% 2.35 +50.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.6%

H 51% / xG 2.6-2.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 1–1 4.7%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atletico Barinas2.6

Zamora FC B2.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS · PPG 1.78

ZAMORA FC B · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Atletico Barinas (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.0%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.6%

Zamora FC B (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atletico Barinas face Zamora FC B in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atletico Barinas a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Zamora FC B 28%, so Club Atletico Barinas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Club Atletico Barinas and 2.2 for Zamora FC B (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atletico Barinas are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.33 for Zamora FC B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +50.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Club Atletico Barinas vs Zamora FC B Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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