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Bolívar vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Bolívar

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.1%0-25.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.4%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-16.8%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 50.0% 2.00 -17.2%

Draw 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

Away win 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Over 2.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Over 3.5 21.3% 19.8% 5.05 +4.5%

BTTS 48.4% 46.9% 2.13 +3.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 39.8% 2.51 -19.4%

Away O1.5 20.8% 24.4% 4.10 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.6%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolívar1.0

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.75

DINAMO DE PUERTO LA CRUZ · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bolívar (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -17.2%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.8%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolívar face Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolívar a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 26%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bolívar and 0.9 for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolívar are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Bolívar vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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