Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Sarmiento Resistencia vs Boca Unidos

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Sarmiento Resistencia

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Unidos

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Resistencia1.5

Boca Unidos1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.33

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Resistencia (H) 47.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boca Unidos (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Resistencia face Boca Unidos in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Boca Unidos 28%, so Sarmiento Resistencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.1 for Boca Unidos (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Resistencia are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Boca Unidos.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions