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Lugano vs Lujan Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Lugano

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lujan

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-112.9%0-26.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-17.1%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.4%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 31.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.3%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano1.0

Lujan1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO · PPG 1.82

LUJAN · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lugano (H) 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lujan (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano face Lujan in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Lujan 35%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lugano and 1.0 for Lujan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 2.18 for Lujan.

Lugano vs Lujan Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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