Today / Argentina - Primera C / JJ Urquiza vs El Porvenir

JJ Urquiza vs El Porvenir Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

JJ Urquiza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

El Porvenir

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.6%0-119.2%0-26.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-110.9%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.8%2-13.1%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% — — —

Draw 37.5% — — —

Away win 30.2% — — —

Over 2.5 33.7% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.6%

#2 0–1 19.2%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJ Urquiza0.6

El Porvenir0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JJ URQUIZA · PPG 1.00

EL PORVENIR · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 1.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JJ Urquiza (H) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

El Porvenir (A) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JJ Urquiza face El Porvenir in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJ Urquiza a 32% chance, the draw 38% and El Porvenir 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for JJ Urquiza and 0.6 for El Porvenir (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJ Urquiza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.18 for El Porvenir.

JJ Urquiza vs El Porvenir Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera C Predictions