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Deportivo Paraguayo vs Sportivo Barracas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Paraguayo

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Barracas

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-116.7%0-210.5%0-34.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.7%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.8%2-14.8%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Draw 27.7% 35.1% 2.85 -12.6%

Away win 41.7% 43.5% 2.30 -4.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 39.2% 2.55 +8.9%

Over 3.5 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

BTTS 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 37.0% 2.70 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.7%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 0–1 16.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Paraguayo0.8

Sportivo Barracas1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO · PPG 0.82

SPORTIVO BARRACAS · PPG 0.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.50, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Paraguayo (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.6%

Sportivo Barracas (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Paraguayo face Sportivo Barracas in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Paraguayo a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Sportivo Barracas 42%, so Sportivo Barracas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Paraguayo and 1.3 for Sportivo Barracas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Paraguayo are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 0.89 for Sportivo Barracas. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Deportivo Paraguayo vs Sportivo Barracas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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