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Atletico Atlas vs Argentino Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentino Rosario

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.7%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 44.4% 2.25 +8.7%

Draw 27.7% 35.1% 2.85 -12.6%

Away win 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 25.0% 4.00 +2.4%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 37.9% 41.7% 2.40 -9.0%

Away O1.5 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Atlas1.3

Argentino Rosario0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.33

ARGENTINO ROSARIO · PPG 0.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Atlas (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.6%

Argentino Rosario (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Atlas face Argentino Rosario in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Atlas a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Argentino Rosario 24%, so Atletico Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico Atlas and 0.9 for Argentino Rosario (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Atlas are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.40 for Argentino Rosario. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Atletico Atlas vs Argentino Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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