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Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Rapid Vienna

PPG 1.77 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grazer AK

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-111.2%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Draw 24.4% 27.4% 3.65 -6.6%

Away win 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 54.6% 1.83 -1.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rapid Vienna1.7

Grazer AK0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RAPID VIENNA · PPG 1.77

GRAZER AK · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rapid Vienna (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.6%

Grazer AK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapid Vienna face Grazer AK in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapid Vienna a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Grazer AK 22%, so Rapid Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rapid Vienna and 0.9 for Grazer AK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.84 for Grazer AK.

Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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