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WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

WSG Wattens

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Red Bull Salzburg

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.6%0-27.2%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-17.5%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 15.2% 6.60 +118.5%

Draw 29.8% 23.1% 4.33 +17.4%

Away win 37.1% 69.0% 1.45 -46.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 63.7% 1.57 -21.7%

Over 3.5 30.0% 41.7% 2.40 -28.0%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 36.1% 28.2% 3.55 +28.1%

Away O1.5 47.3% 69.0% 1.45 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WSG Wattens1.3

Red Bull Salzburg1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WSG WATTENS · PPG 1.48

RED BULL SALZBURG · PPG 1.48

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

WSG Wattens (H) 33.1%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +118.5%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +17.4%

Red Bull Salzburg (A) 37.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

WSG Wattens face Red Bull Salzburg in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WSG Wattens a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Red Bull Salzburg 37%, so Red Bull Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for WSG Wattens and 1.5 for Red Bull Salzburg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WSG Wattens are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.48 for Red Bull Salzburg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +67.5%.

WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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