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Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:30

Sturm Graz

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

SCR Altach

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.5%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 58.8% 1.70 -16.2%

Draw 26.9% 26.7% 3.75 +0.5%

Away win 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 56.5% 1.77 -20.2%

Away O1.5 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz1.5

SCR Altach0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ · PPG 1.46

SCR ALTACH · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -16.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.5%

SCR Altach (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz face SCR Altach in Austria - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance, the draw 27% and SCR Altach 24%, so Sturm Graz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sturm Graz and 0.9 for SCR Altach (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.84 for SCR Altach.

Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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