Today / Austria - Bundesliga / TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:30

TSV Hartberg

PPG 1.21 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sturm Graz

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-112.1%0-27.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.7%2-17.1%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 21.7% 4.60 +44.4%

Draw 33.6% 26.7% 3.75 +26.0%

Away win 34.9% 58.8% 1.70 -40.7%

Over 2.5 45.6% 56.5% 1.77 -19.3%

Over 3.5 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%

BTTS 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.3% 3.30 +5.9%

Away O1.5 35.7% 57.8% 1.73 -38.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.8%

D 34% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV Hartberg1.1

Sturm Graz1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV HARTBERG · PPG 1.21

STURM GRAZ · PPG 1.65

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TSV Hartberg (H) 31.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +44.4%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +26.0%

Sturm Graz (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV Hartberg face Sturm Graz in Austria - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Sturm Graz 35%, so Sturm Graz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for TSV Hartberg and 1.3 for Sturm Graz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.65 for Sturm Graz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 0-2.

TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Bundesliga Predictions