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Lask Linz vs Ried Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:30

Lask Linz

PPG 2.05 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ried

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-110.1%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 65.4% 1.53 -16.8%

Draw 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Away win 21.7% 17.4% 5.75 +14.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 30.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

BTTS 49.0% 57.1% 1.75 -14.2%

Home O1.5 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Away O1.5 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lask Linz1.9

Ried0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LASK LINZ · PPG 2.05

RIED · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lask Linz (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -16.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

Ried (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lask Linz face Ried in Austria - Bundesliga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lask Linz a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Ried 22%, so Lask Linz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lask Linz and 0.8 for Ried (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lask Linz are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.08 for Ried.

Lask Linz vs Ried Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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