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Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Wolfsberger AC

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Red Bull Salzburg

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.3%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 27.4% 3.65 +78.8%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

Away win 25.0% 52.6% 1.90 -31.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 61.7% 1.62 -18.0%

Over 3.5 29.5% 39.2% 2.55 -14.9%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 39.2% 2.55 +15.8%

Away O1.5 31.9% 57.8% 1.73 -44.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsberger AC1.5

Red Bull Salzburg1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBERGER AC · PPG 1.88

RED BULL SALZBURG · PPG 1.58

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsberger AC (H) 49.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +78.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.5%

Red Bull Salzburg (A) 25.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsberger AC face Red Bull Salzburg in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsberger AC a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Red Bull Salzburg 25%, so Wolfsberger AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wolfsberger AC and 1.0 for Red Bull Salzburg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.58 for Red Bull Salzburg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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