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Ried vs Rapid Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Ried

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rapid Vienna

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-111.4%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-17.8%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 33.9% 2.95 +25.1%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

Away win 29.4% 42.9% 2.33 -18.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.3% 1.95 -10.5%

Over 3.5 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

BTTS 49.6% 58.8% 1.70 -15.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.7% 2.65 -14.9%

Away O1.5 31.1% 44.4% 2.25 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ried1.2

Rapid Vienna1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RIED · PPG 1.71

RAPID VIENNA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ried (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +25.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.4%

Rapid Vienna (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ried face Rapid Vienna in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ried a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Rapid Vienna 29%, so Ried are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ried and 1.0 for Rapid Vienna (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ried are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.33 for Rapid Vienna. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Ried vs Rapid Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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