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Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

Austria Vienna

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lask Linz

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.3%0-28.6%0-36.0%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.6%2-15.4%2-25.6%2-33.9%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.1%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 28.2% 3.55 -10.0%

Draw 21.6% 28.2% 3.55 -14.0%

Away win 55.0% 51.3% 1.95 +7.2%

Over 2.5 63.4% 55.6% 1.80 +14.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 33.3% 3.00 +18.5%

BTTS 61.6% 60.6% 1.65 +1.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Away O1.5 54.7% 52.6% 1.90 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.6%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2✓ 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austria Vienna1.1

Lask Linz2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTRIA VIENNA · PPG 1.38

LASK LINZ · PPG 1.54

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Austria Vienna (H) 23.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.0%

Lask Linz (A) 55.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austria Vienna face Lask Linz in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austria Vienna a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Lask Linz 55%, so Lask Linz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Austria Vienna and 2.1 for Lask Linz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austria Vienna are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.54 for Lask Linz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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