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Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.0%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.8%1-19.3%1-27.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.4%3-15.4%3-24.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 48.5% 2.06 -9.8%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 34.1% 32.8% 3.05 +4.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Over 3.5 42.6% 40.8% 2.45 +4.4%

BTTS 63.3% 67.6% 1.48 -6.3%

Home O1.5 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Away O1.5 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Supra du Quebec1.9

Atlético Ottawa1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.00

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Supra du Quebec (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Atlético Ottawa (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Supra du Quebec face Atlético Ottawa in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Supra du Quebec a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Atlético Ottawa 34%, so Supra du Quebec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Supra du Quebec and 1.6 for Atlético Ottawa (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Atlético Ottawa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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