Today / Canada - Premier League / Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC

Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Cavalry FC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-112.2%0-212.6%0-38.7%0-4+7.3%1 1-04.5%1-19.3%1-29.6%1-36.6%1-4+5.6%2 2-01.7%2-13.5%2-23.7%2-32.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 23.8% 4.20 -27.0%

Draw 21.2% 27.0% 3.70 -12.9%

Away win 65.8% 58.1% 1.72 +13.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.8% 1.70 +2.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 37.0% 2.70 -0.6%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 14.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.1%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.6%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 1–1✓ 9.3%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Supra du Quebec0.8

Cavalry FC2.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.00

CAVALRY FC · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.31 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Supra du Quebec (H) 13.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.9%

Cavalry FC (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Supra du Quebec face Cavalry FC in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Supra du Quebec a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Cavalry FC 66%, so Cavalry FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Supra du Quebec and 2.1 for Cavalry FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Cavalry FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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