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Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:00

Forge

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.6%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.1%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.5%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 60.6% 1.65 -17.8%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

Over 2.5 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

BTTS 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 59.9% 1.67 -24.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 28.6% 3.50 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 28.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge1.4

Vancouver FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.67

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -17.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Vancouver FC (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face Vancouver FC in Canada - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Vancouver FC 23%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Forge and 0.7 for Vancouver FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Vancouver FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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