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Cavalry FC vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:00

Cavalry FC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

York United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.4%1-17.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.8%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-16.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.3% 71.4% 1.40 -3.0%

Draw 20.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

Away win 10.1% 17.4% 5.75 -25.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

BTTS 48.7% 55.6% 1.80 -12.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.7% 3.75 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 69% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavalry FC2.3

York United0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVALRY FC · PPG 2.33

YORK UNITED · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cavalry FC (H) 69.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.5%

York United (A) 10.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavalry FC face York United in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavalry FC a 69% chance, the draw 21% and York United 10%, so Cavalry FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cavalry FC and 0.6 for York United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavalry FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for York United.

Cavalry FC vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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