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Kauno Žalgiris vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:45

Kauno Žalgiris

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

TransINVEST Vilnius

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.7%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.5%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 22.1% 20.0% 5.00 +6.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 55.6% 1.80 +7.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 33.3% 3.00 +9.5%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Away O1.5 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris2.0

TransINVEST Vilnius0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS · PPG 1.85

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

TransINVEST Vilnius (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris face TransINVEST Vilnius in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 55% chance, the draw 23% and TransINVEST Vilnius 22%, so Kauno Žalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.9 for TransINVEST Vilnius (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.77 for TransINVEST Vilnius. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.0%.

Kauno Žalgiris vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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