Today / Sweden - Ettan - Södra / Rosengård vs Utsikten

Rosengård vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Rosengård

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Utsikten

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.7%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-15.3%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-18.0%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-113.0%4+-25.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 82.0% 1.22 -16.2%

Draw 16.7% 17.4% 5.75 -2.4%

Away win 14.6% 10.4% 9.60 +24.1%

Over 2.5 67.4% 72.5% 1.38 -7.0%

Over 3.5 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

BTTS 54.5% 56.5% 1.77 -3.5%

Home O1.5 80.3% 82.0% 1.22 -2.0%

Away O1.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 69% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengård3.0

Utsikten0.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.43

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.21 for Home, form 1.43 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rosengård (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -16.2%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -2.4%

Utsikten (A) 14.6%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengård face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengård a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Utsikten 15%, so Rosengård are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Rosengård and 0.8 for Utsikten (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengård are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.50 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Rosengård vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Södra Predictions