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Atvidabergs FF vs Skövde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Atvidabergs FF

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skövde AIK

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.4%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-16.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 69.4% 1.44 -6.3%

Draw 19.9% 22.7% 4.40 -7.5%

Away win 14.9% 17.4% 5.75 -8.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 41.7% 2.40 -6.9%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.6% 3.50 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidabergs FF2.3

Skövde AIK0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERGS FF · PPG 2.12

SKÖVDE AIK · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.50 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atvidabergs FF (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -6.3%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -7.5%

Skövde AIK (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidabergs FF face Skövde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidabergs FF a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Skövde AIK 15%, so Atvidabergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Atvidabergs FF and 0.8 for Skövde AIK (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidabergs FF are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.75 for Skövde AIK.

Atvidabergs FF vs Skövde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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