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Lund vs Hässleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Lund

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hässleholms IF

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.4%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-19.0%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.7%

Over 2.5 64.7% 67.6% 1.48 -4.2%

Over 3.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

BTTS 63.3% 70.4% 1.42 -10.1%

Home O1.5 58.3% 60.6% 1.65 -3.8%

Away O1.5 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund2.0

Hässleholms IF1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 2.50

HÄSSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Hässleholms IF (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Hässleholms IF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Hässleholms IF 29%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lund and 1.4 for Hässleholms IF (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Hässleholms IF.

Lund vs Hässleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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