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Laholm vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Laholm

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.7%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.2%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 25.3% 3.95 +58.8%

Draw 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -4.7%

Away win 35.2% 57.8% 1.73 -39.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 60.6% 1.65 -1.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

BTTS 61.6% 62.5% 1.60 -1.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 35.7% 2.80 +26.3%

Away O1.5 47.3% 60.6% 1.65 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laholm1.5

Jonkopings Sodra1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHOLM · PPG 1.00

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 0.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Laholm (H) 40.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +58.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.7%

Jonkopings Sodra (A) 35.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -39.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laholm face Jonkopings Sodra in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laholm a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Jonkopings Sodra 35%, so Laholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Laholm and 1.5 for Jonkopings Sodra (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laholm are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Jonkopings Sodra. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.6%.

Laholm vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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