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AFC Malmo vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

AFC Malmo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Trelleborg

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.6%0-27.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.7%1-111.1%1-29.3%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 38.5% 2.60 -18.1%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 43.5% 42.9% 2.33 +1.4%

Over 2.5 57.4% 60.6% 1.65 -5.3%

Over 3.5 35.1% 38.5% 2.60 -8.7%

BTTS 58.9% 66.7% 1.50 -11.7%

Home O1.5 37.4% 47.6% 2.10 -21.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.9%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Malmo1.3

Trelleborg1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC MALMO · PPG 1.75

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Malmo (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Trelleborg (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Malmo face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Malmo a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Trelleborg 44%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AFC Malmo and 1.7 for Trelleborg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Malmo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.43 for Trelleborg. This match finished 1-2.

AFC Malmo vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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