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Olympic vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Olympic

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

AFC Malmo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.9%0-25.9%0-33.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.5%1-19.0%1-29.0%1-36.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-26.9%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.2%

Draw 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Away win 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.0% 1.45 -2.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 46.5% 2.15 -7.5%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.3%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic1.5

AFC Malmo2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.88

AFC MALMO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

AFC Malmo (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face AFC Malmo in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 32% chance, the draw 23% and AFC Malmo 45%, so AFC Malmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Olympic and 2.0 for AFC Malmo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.00 for AFC Malmo.

Olympic vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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