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Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Trelleborg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eskilsminne

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.4%1-16.6%1-23.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-110.7%4+-25.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 65.4% 1.53 +3.7%

Draw 16.7% 24.4% 4.10 -18.9%

Away win 15.5% 20.8% 4.80 -15.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.0% 42.6% 2.35 +1.1%

BTTS 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Home O1.5 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Away O1.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.6%

H 68% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 8.7%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg2.7

Eskilsminne1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.00

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +3.7%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -18.9%

Eskilsminne (A) 15.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Eskilsminne 16%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Trelleborg and 1.0 for Eskilsminne (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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