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Jonkopings Sodra vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Olympic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.9%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-19.8%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 59.5% 1.68 -7.1%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 34.5% 2.90 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings Sodra2.0

Olympic1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 2.29

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings Sodra (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Olympic (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings Sodra face Olympic in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Olympic 22%, so Jonkopings Sodra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.1 for Olympic (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Jonkopings Sodra vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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