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ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Baranovichi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 1.50 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-17.0%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-17.9%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-19.6%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% — — —

Draw 19.2% — — —

Away win 17.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -43.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 63% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk2.6

Baranovichi0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.50

BARANOVICHI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 1.50 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 62.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baranovichi (A) 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Baranovichi in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Baranovichi 18%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for ML Vitebsk and 0.8 for Baranovichi (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Baranovichi.

ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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