Today / Finland - Ykkonen / KuPS Akatemia vs PKKU

KuPS Akatemia vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

PKKU

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.4%0-26.2%0-34.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.9%1-19.4%1-29.2%1-35.9%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-16.9%2-26.7%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

BTTS 62.3% 75.2% 1.33 -17.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 54.6% 1.83 -17.5%

Away O1.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.3%

A 45% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS Akatemia1.5

PKKU1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.78

PKKU · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KuPS Akatemia (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.0%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

PKKU (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS Akatemia face PKKU in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS Akatemia a 32% chance, the draw 23% and PKKU 45%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KuPS Akatemia and 1.9 for PKKU (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS Akatemia are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.56 for PKKU.

KuPS Akatemia vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions