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Inter Turku II vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

Inter Turku II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

KPV-j

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.8%1-15.5%1-23.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.1%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-112.6%4+-27.3%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 65.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Draw 15.7% 25.0% 4.00 -22.3%

Away win 20.9% 21.7% 4.60 -2.3%

Over 2.5 67.4% 76.9% 1.30 -12.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

BTTS 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Home O1.5 80.3% 75.2% 1.33 +6.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 42.0% 2.38 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 63% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–0 7.0%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Turku II3.0

KPV-j1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER TURKU II · PPG 1.00

KPV-J · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.80 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Turku II (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -3.0%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -22.3%

KPV-j (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Turku II face KPV-j in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Turku II a 63% chance, the draw 16% and KPV-j 21%, so Inter Turku II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Inter Turku II and 1.2 for KPV-j (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Turku II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.56 for KPV-j. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Inter Turku II vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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