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Fittja vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Fittja

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rågsved

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.2%0-22.7%0-31.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.3%1-17.3%1-26.2%1-33.5%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.7%3-16.2%3-25.3%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.0%4+-25.1%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 40.0% 2.50 +22.5%

Draw 22.1% 27.4% 3.65 -11.6%

Away win 28.9% 42.9% 2.33 -19.6%

Over 2.5 67.4% 69.4% 1.44 -2.9%

Over 3.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 54.1% 1.85 +16.6%

Away O1.5 47.7% 56.5% 1.77 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -19.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fittja2.3

Rågsved1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FITTJA · PPG 2.00

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fittja (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +22.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.6%

Rågsved (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fittja face Rågsved in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fittja a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Rågsved 29%, so Fittja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Fittja and 1.7 for Rågsved (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fittja are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Rågsved. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.8%.

Fittja vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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