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Smedby vs Eker Örebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Smedby

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eker Örebro

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.84 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.2%1-13.4%1-21.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.7%2-16.2%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.6%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-022.0%4+-117.9%4+-27.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% — — —

Draw 15.8% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 76% / xG 3.6-0.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.3%

#2 4–0 8.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smedby3.6

Eker Örebro0.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDBY · PPG 2.00

EKER ÖREBRO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.84 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Smedby (H) 76.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eker Örebro (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smedby face Eker Örebro in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smedby a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Eker Örebro 8%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Smedby and 0.8 for Eker Örebro (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smedby are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Eker Örebro.

Smedby vs Eker Örebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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