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Farsta vs Nyköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Farsta

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nyköping

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.4%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.9%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 45.5% 2.20 +15.1%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 23.3% 40.3% 2.48 -25.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 75.2% 1.33 -33.6%

Over 3.5 29.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.4%

BTTS 53.1% 76.9% 1.30 -31.0%

Home O1.5 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

Away O1.5 26.2% 53.8% 1.86 -30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta1.6

Nyköping0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 2.71

NYKÖPING · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Nyköping (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Nyköping in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Nyköping 23%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Farsta and 0.9 for Nyköping (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.57 for Nyköping.

Farsta vs Nyköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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