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Nacka Iliria vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 10:00

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Örebro Syrianska

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.0%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.2%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-18.0%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

Draw 27.5% 29.0% 3.45 -3.1%

Away win 35.5% 42.9% 2.33 -17.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 63.7% 1.57 -21.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.3%

BTTS 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Home O1.5 31.7% 50.0% 2.00 -36.6%

Away O1.5 34.3% 52.6% 1.90 -34.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -19.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacka Iliria1.2

Örebro Syrianska1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.88

ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacka Iliria (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -3.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.1%

Örebro Syrianska (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacka Iliria face Örebro Syrianska in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacka Iliria a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Örebro Syrianska 36%, so Nacka Iliria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nacka Iliria and 1.1 for Örebro Syrianska (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacka Iliria are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.38 for Örebro Syrianska.

Nacka Iliria vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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