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IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

IFK Varnamo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ostersunds FK

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.2%0-28.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-16.9%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 44.8% 39.2% 2.55 +14.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 44.4% 2.25 -30.5%

Away O1.5 47.3% 44.4% 2.25 +6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.5%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Varnamo1.2

Ostersunds FK1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 1.00

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Varnamo (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Ostersunds FK (A) 44.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Varnamo face Ostersunds FK in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Varnamo a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Ostersunds FK 45%, so Ostersunds FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for IFK Varnamo and 1.6 for Ostersunds FK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Ostersunds FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%.

IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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