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GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Helsingborg

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+20.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.2%0-26.8%0-35.0%0-4+4.6%1 1-03.9%1-18.5%1-29.3%1-36.8%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-15.8%2-26.4%2-34.7%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.2%3-12.7%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

Away win 52.9% 47.6% 2.10 +11.1%

Over 2.5 65.7% 54.6% 1.83 +20.2%

Over 3.5 43.0% 32.3% 3.10 +33.3%

BTTS 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.2% 2.62 -0.7%

Away O1.5 60.0% 50.0% 2.00 +20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -6.0%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.3%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GIF Sundsvall1.4

Helsingborg2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.67

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

GIF Sundsvall (H) 25.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.1%

Helsingborg (A) 52.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

GIF Sundsvall face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Helsingborg 53%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for GIF Sundsvall and 2.2 for Helsingborg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GIF Sundsvall are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.3%.

GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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