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Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Norrby IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.9%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.5%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 26.8% 26.3% 3.80 +1.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

BTTS 54.5% 65.4% 1.53 -16.6%

Home O1.5 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -6.0%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenbergs FF1.7

Norrby IF1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 1.67

NORRBY IF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Falkenbergs FF (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -10.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Norrby IF (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenbergs FF face Norrby IF in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenbergs FF a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Norrby IF 27%, so Falkenbergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Falkenbergs FF and 1.1 for Norrby IF (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrby IF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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