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Mineros de Guyana vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Mineros de Guyana

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Monagas II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-115.9%0-211.0%0-35.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.5%2-14.8%2-23.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.3%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Away win 44.5% 42.6% 2.35 +4.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 42.6% 2.35 +17.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 24.4% 4.10 +10.8%

BTTS 49.6% 53.2% 1.88 -6.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 34.1% 2.93 -5.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 38.3% 2.61 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.6%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 15.9%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 0–2 11.0%

#5 1–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mineros de Guyana0.8

Monagas II1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MINEROS DE GUYANA · PPG 0.25

MONAGAS II · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mineros de Guyana (H) 27.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Monagas II (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mineros de Guyana face Monagas II in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mineros de Guyana a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Monagas II 45%, so Monagas II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mineros de Guyana and 1.4 for Monagas II (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mineros de Guyana are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Monagas II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Mineros de Guyana vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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