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Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:30

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Luqueno

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.8%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.5%1-26.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 62.1% 1.61 -25.6%

Draw 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Away win 28.2% 18.2% 5.50 +33.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 34.1% 27.0% 3.70 +26.2%

BTTS 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Away O1.5 39.4% 22.2% 4.50 +77.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.8

Sportivo Luqueno1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.37

SPORTIVO LUQUENO · PPG 1.68

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 46.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -25.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Sportivo Luqueno (A) 28.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face Sportivo Luqueno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Sportivo Luqueno 28%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cerro Porteno and 1.3 for Sportivo Luqueno (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.68 for Sportivo Luqueno. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +77.3%.

Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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