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Fuerte San Francisco vs Isidro Metapán Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Fuerte San Francisco

PPG 0.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Isidro Metapán

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.8%0-210.0%0-36.2%0-4+4.4%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.9%2-15.3%2-24.9%2-33.0%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 52.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 22%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.8%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fuerte San Francisco1.0

Isidro Metapán1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FUERTE SAN FRANCISCO · PPG 0.92

ISIDRO METAPÁN · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Fuerte San Francisco (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Isidro Metapán (A) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fuerte San Francisco face Isidro Metapán in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fuerte San Francisco a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Isidro Metapán 53%, so Isidro Metapán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.9 for Isidro Metapán (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fuerte San Francisco are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.53 for Isidro Metapán.

Fuerte San Francisco vs Isidro Metapán Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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