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Isidro Metapán vs Águila Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:00

Isidro Metapán

PPG 1.84 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Águila

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 40.8% 2.45 +13.9%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 25.6% 37.7% 2.65 -19.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 22.0% 25.0% 4.00 -7.2%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 39.2% 2.55 -4.6%

Away O1.5 21.8% 37.0% 2.70 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 22%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Isidro Metapán1.3

Águila0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ISIDRO METAPÁN · PPG 1.84

ÁGUILA · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Isidro Metapán (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Águila (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Isidro Metapán face Águila in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Isidro Metapán a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Águila 26%, so Isidro Metapán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Isidro Metapán and 0.9 for Águila (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Isidro Metapán are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.36 for Águila. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Isidro Metapán vs Águila Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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