Today / El-Salvador - Primera Division / Firpo vs Municipal Limeño

Firpo vs Municipal Limeño Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:00

Firpo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Municipal Limeño

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.9%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.6%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.8%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 61.7% 1.62 -10.6%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 20.6% 21.1% 4.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Away O1.5 19.0% 25.3% 3.95 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 22%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Firpo1.8

Municipal Limeño0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRPO · PPG 2.14

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Firpo (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Municipal Limeño (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Firpo face Municipal Limeño in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Firpo a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Municipal Limeño 21%, so Firpo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Firpo and 0.8 for Municipal Limeño (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Firpo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.84 for Municipal Limeño. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Firpo vs Municipal Limeño Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More El-Salvador - Primera Division Predictions