Today / El-Salvador - Primera Division / Isidro Metapán vs FAS

Isidro Metapán vs FAS Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 00:00

Isidro Metapán

PPG 1.45 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FAS

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+40.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.7%0-25.8%0-33.9%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.3%1-18.8%1-28.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-26.9%2-34.7%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 39.2% 2.55 -17.9%

Draw 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Away win 45.0% 39.2% 2.55 +14.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 47.6% 2.10 +40.3%

Over 3.5 44.7% 26.7% 3.75 +67.6%

BTTS 63.5% 55.6% 1.80 +14.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 39.2% 2.55 +15.8%

Away O1.5 50.0% 39.2% 2.55 +27.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Isidro Metapán1.5

FAS2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ISIDRO METAPÁN · PPG 1.45

FAS · PPG 1.65

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Isidro Metapán (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.9%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

FAS (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Isidro Metapán face FAS in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Isidro Metapán a 32% chance, the draw 23% and FAS 45%, so FAS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Isidro Metapán and 2.0 for FAS (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Isidro Metapán are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.65 for FAS. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +67.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Isidro Metapán vs FAS Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More El-Salvador - Primera Division Predictions