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Cacahuatique vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Cacahuatique

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fuerte San Francisco

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+44.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.9%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.3%1-17.2%1-24.9%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.5%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-18.4%4+-25.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Draw 21.7% 29.9% 3.35 -16.4%

Away win 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 46.5% 2.15 +44.7%

Over 3.5 47.2% 25.6% 3.90 +84.1%

BTTS 64.3% 51.8% 1.93 +24.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 50.0% 2.00 +26.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 27.4% 3.65 +59.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 22%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cacahuatique2.5

Fuerte San Francisco1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CACAHUATIQUE · PPG 1.19

FUERTE SAN FRANCISCO · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cacahuatique (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.4%

Fuerte San Francisco (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cacahuatique face Fuerte San Francisco in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cacahuatique a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Fuerte San Francisco 25%, so Cacahuatique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Cacahuatique and 1.4 for Fuerte San Francisco (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cacahuatique are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Fuerte San Francisco. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +84.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Cacahuatique vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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